Update on my Tesla Solar plans. I've been working with my Tesla advisor on system designs. I've been dragging my feet so it gives me more time to do some research.
In 2024 I use about 20,069 kWh/yr, yeah it's a lot, too many fish tanks lol.
Initial system design was for 10 panels and 2PW3 for a 4.1 kW system which would be a 33% Offset. Finance for 15yrs at 7.5% interest on $26,973.35. Monthly payments would be $240.78.
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Second design, would require me to hire a roofing company to relocate 3 pipes/vents so I can fit 3 more panels for a total of 13 panels and 2PW3 for a 5.33 kW system which would be a 43% Offset. Finance for 15 years at 7.5% interest is $30,313.38. Monthly payments would be $271.74.
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I know the batteries are not really beneficial at the moment since I won't even be producing enough energy to fill them, but I figured it would be cheaper to get them installed now vs later in the future. Does that make sense?
@JustinBolton any thoughts on this? I also plan on reducing the number of fish tanks I have so that should reduce my overall electricity consumption.
Still trying to decide if going solar makes sense since I'll still have to pay PG&E a big chunk, but with them increases prices 1.5% already in 2025 and they increased rates 12.8% in 2024 I think this may be a good long term investment since I don't plan on selling this house any time soon.
Sizing & ROI
Regarding "I know the batteries are not really beneficial at the moment since I won't even be producing enough energy to fill them", the main thing to keep in mind is net metering (now managed via NEM 3.0) without a battery makes assessing production versus usage more complicated.
For example, let's say your system is only a 33% offset. The peak of that offset is going to be during the middle of the day, and highest in sunny months (eg summer). Let's pretend it's a nice sunny day in July, 74°F at 1pm, and you're away from home so not using extra electric or AC or whatever. Your tanks will be using a lot of electric, but let's say your house is generating 3kWh and you're only using 2kWh for that hour.
That extra 1kWh you generate isn't getting banked, it's getting sent back to the grid. With NEM 3.0 that 1kWh you could be getting basically nothing for that, let's say $0.04 per kWh. Later at 6pm you're generating 0.5kWh and using 2kWh at home. That extra 1.5kWh you need for 6-7pm may cost you $1. Even if for that entire day you generated more power than you used overall, you would owe money for that day.
Earlier versions of net metering weren't this way, or at least this extreme. If it would cost you $0.30 for some electric, if you pushed the same amount of electric to the grid you'd make $0.30. Cost = Payment. NEM 3.0 changed it so what they pay you is almost $0, while they'd continue charging crazy PGE rates.
All the above numbers are made up, but they're not that crazy off. The gist is with NEM 3.0 you need to be careful with the sizing or just get battery backups. The solar people should be able to explain that, but of course they're biased to say you need a ginormous system.
Design
If you're running into issues getting good panel fit on your roof, I would recommend getting another quote from another vendor. In my experience Tesla is not flexible with that, and the other little guys will be hungry for your business and will try more options. The other guys may not be cost competitive in the end, but it can be useful to get a comparison.
Hopefully it's obvious it's shady to get another quote from someone just to get a design to take back to Tesla, but if you can get a better design it might be worth paying a bit more for a different vendor. Over a long time horizon, the initial incremental cost disappears.
Financing
Adding this from just re-reading your messages. Sucks interest rates have shot up, but I wonder if there's other options to get that number down from 7%. Eg can you take a home equity loan out instead? I'm not sure the rates these days.
Though as a positive, as the economy crashes and inflation shoots up to ever increasing crazy numbers, it doesn't matter how much you spend now! $1 of debt in today's money will be meaningless in a year's money when an egg costs $100 a dozen~