This is what I heard back from Ra Solar regarding Tesla Wall. I just installed a 9.4KW system but has not gone live yet. Questions I asked were appropriate size, whether I'd lost excess energy produced in summer.
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Regarding the Tesla battery pack, their website is helpful in initially sizing the system.
https://www.tesla.com/powerwall
The representative I spoke with over the phone said that most people in the Bay Area will continue to be connected to the grid and use the batteries as emergency backup. If you do this you can utilize "load shifting" which helps you store energy during Off Peak hours and send it back to the grid during Peak hours for higher credits.
In order to have backup for your entire home, 3-4 Powerwalls are recommended. The price of each is $7,000 + tax + permit + fees (estimated to be roughly $8,000 apiece after these costs). They store 14 kWh each, so the representative said that at 40 kWh/day usage, 3 units would be conservative at 42 kWh/day and 4 units would give you more leeway at 56 kWh/day.
Concerning your winter question:
1) The solar more than likely doesn't need to be resized. Since you're still going to be connected to the grid, you can utilize the grid in the same way you are going to now in the winter months. In case of emergency with your power being out for more than 1 day in the winter months (which is unlikely) you can always allocate your Powerwalls to your most important electrical loads, thus sparing extra kWh for subsequent days.
2) The energy will not go wasted since you'll still be connected to the grid and getting credits from PG&E. In fact, your credit value will increase by sending more kWh back to the grid during peak hours. However, at a cost of ~ $30,000, it's going to take a lot of kWh credits to help you recoup your investment if you're not frequently using the emergency backup benefit. A smaller system (2 Powerwalls) could make sense to more economically back up your most important electrical loads.